GJPForecasting

Stuff to use with new Good Judgment Project site, 2015-16 season.

Intended to contain code snippets and tools that I've written for this year. Not polished, I'm doing this in part for the practice with R. Some things other than R code too.

Notify me here if there is something you want written/changed - will do if I can & have time.

Files

• acled_country_mk.R

  • input: ACLED data in dataframe output by acled.importer.R
  • filters for a specific country, within the last year
  • attempts to remove events associated with on-going episode of mass killing
  • output: tables of events created at different stages in process, including tally of fatalities by actor1 (perpetrator) and actor2 (victim)

• plot_forecast.R

  • plots forecast and effect on Brier scores over forecast period
  • input: list of forecast dates (as strings), array of forecast values
  • output: PNG file with two graphs
  • see file header for more details.

• getGJPquestions.R (Note: doesn't work with updated site)

  • reads an html copy of the "questions" page at www.goodjudgmentproject.com
  • extracts question number (from id), closing date, question text, and current probability for binary questions (not category questions yet).
  • puts info in a data frame, returns it, and also writes to a CSV file
  • see file header for comments on usage, arguments to pass.

• refugees_2015.xlsx (11/30/15: Not up to date)

  • Excel workbook for estimation of refugees arriving in Europe by sea, 2015
  • update red-outlined cells with most recent data from http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.php

• "Bracket refugees.pdf"," Bracket refugees.csv" (11/30/15: Not up to date)

  • PDF and CSV files for "Bracket" sheet from refugees_2015.xlsx.
  • Do not have all features in the Excel worksheet, but wanted different format options.

• Greece.pdf (11/30/15: Not up to date)

  • PDF file for "Greece" sheet from refugees_2015.xlsx.
  • Just has text for current version of the Excel sheet.

• scoreOrderedCat.R

  • ordered categorical scoring
  • provides Brier score estimates for all potential outcomes
  • input is vector of probability estimates, length = # result categories
  • use for seeing how different probabilities affect ordered categorical score
  • doesn't account for consensus forecast
  • doesn't track over time

• acled_Burundi_local.R

  • Script to read in file containing Burundi local data sources and process
  • input: .csv file of Burundi data (hardcoded - will need to update)
  • Basically does what the acled_importer does, but for a specific .csv file.

• acled_local_country_mk.R

  • Script to process local data. Functions the same as acled_country_mk.R

• acled_asia_import.R

  • Importer for the Asia data file

• asia_country_mk.R

  • Process ACLED data for Asia, slight differences in the data storage from
  • Africa data.

• acled_DRC_civ_fatal.R

  • Script to filter the ACLED data for DRC in specific ways for an Early
  • Warning Project question at GJ Open. Question specifies exactly which
  • fields to use

• acled_Ethiopia_ethnic.R

  • Script to mark which Ethiopian events in ACLED database affect Oromo
  • Ethnic group or Amhara ethnic group. Creates a csv file for those events.