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Copy file name to clipboardExpand all lines: lectures/cagan_adaptive.md
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# A Fiscal Theory of Price Level with Adaptive Expectations
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## Introduction
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import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
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```
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<!-- #region -->
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This lecture is a sequel or prequel to this lecture {doc}`fiscal theory of the price level <cagan_ree>`.
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We'll use linear algebra to do some experiments with an alternative "fiscal theory of the price level".
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Like the model in this lecture {doc}`fiscal theory of the price level <cagan_ree>`, the model asserts that when a government persistently spends more than it collects in taxes and prints money to finance the shortfall, it puts upward pressure on the price level and generates persistent inflation.
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Instead of the "perfect foresight" or "rational expectations" version of the model in this lecture {doc}`fiscal theory of the price level <cagan_ree>`, our model in the present lecture is an "adaptive expectations" version of a model that Philip Cagan {cite}`Cagan` used to study the monetary dynamics of hyperinflations.
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It combines these components:
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Instead of the "perfect foresight" or "rational expectations" version of the model in this lecture {doc}`fiscal theory of the price level <cagan_ree>`, our model in the present lecture is an "adaptive expectations" version of a model that Philip Cagan {cite}`Cagan` used to study the monetary dynamics of hyperinflations.
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* a demand function for real money balances that asserts that the logarithm of the quantity of real balances demanded depends inversely on the public's expected rate of inflation
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It combines these components:
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* an **adaptive expectations** model that describes how the public's anticipated rate of inflation responds to past values of actual inflation
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* a demand function for real money balances that asserts that the logarithm of the quantity of real balances demanded depends inversely on the public's expected rate of inflation
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* an **adaptive expectations** model that describes how the public's anticipated rate of inflation responds to past values of actual inflation
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* an equilibrium condition that equates the demand for money to the supply
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* an exogenous sequence of rates of growth of the money supply
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* an equilibrium condition that equates the demand for money to the supply
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* an exogenous sequence of rates of growth of the money supply
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Our model stays quite close to Cagan's original specification.
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Let
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* $ m_t $ be the log of the supply of nominal money balances;
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* $\mu_t = m_{t+1} - m_t $ be the net rate of growth of nominal balances;
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* $p_t $ be the log of the price level;
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* $\pi_t = p_{t+1} - p_t $ be the net rate of inflation between $t$ and $ t+1$;
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* $\pi_t^*$ be the public's expected rate of inflation between $t$ and $t+1$;
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* $T$ the horizon -- i.e., the last period for which the model will determine $p_t$
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* $\pi_0^*$ public's initial expected rate of inflation between time $0$ and time $1$.
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* $ m_t $ be the log of the supply of nominal money balances;
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* $\mu_t = m_{t+1} - m_t $ be the net rate of growth of nominal balances;
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* $p_t $ be the log of the price level;
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* $\pi_t = p_{t+1} - p_t $ be the net rate of inflation between $t$ and $ t+1$;
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* $\pi_t^*$ be the public's expected rate of inflation between $t$ and $t+1$;
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* $T$ the horizon -- i.e., the last period for which the model will determine $p_t$
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* $\pi_0^*$ public's initial expected rate of inflation between time $0$ and time $1$.
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The demand for real balances $\exp\left(\frac{m_t^d}{p_t}\right)$ is governed by the following version of the Cagan demand function
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Taking the difference between equation {eq}`eq:eqfiscth1` at time $t+1$ and at time
By assuring that the coefficient on $\pi_t$ is less than one in absolute value, condition {eq}`eq:suffcond` assures stability of the dynamics of $\{\pi_t\}$ described by the last line of our string of deductions.
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The reader is free to study outcomes in examples that violate condition {eq}`eq:suffcond`.
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<!-- #endregion -->
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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print(np.abs((λ - α*(1-λ))/(1 - α*(1-λ))))
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```
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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print(λ - α*(1-λ))
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```
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Now we'll turn to some experiments.
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### Experiment 1
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We'll study a situation in which the rate of growth of the money supply is $\mu_0$
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So by comparing outcomes across the two lectures, we can learn about consequences of assuming adaptive expectations, as we do here, instead of rational expectations as we assumed in that other lecture.
We invite the reader to compare outcomes with those under rational expectations studied in this lecture {doc}`fiscal theory of the price level <cagan_ree>`.
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